Gold
Spot gold priced in US dollars per troy ounce.
Price · last 3 months
SimulatedMarket trend
Bearish
Gold is moderately bearish on this timeframe.
Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.
Signals behind this
- Price vs long-term averagebearish
- EMA 20 vs EMA 50neutral
- MACD momentumbearish
- RSI (14)bearish
- Bollinger positionbearish
- Market structureneutral
Key levels
- 3,228.85+0.41%
- 3,281.63+2.05%
- 3,339.01+3.84%
- 3,196.50-0.60%
- 3,175.87-1.24%
- 3,118.69-3.02%
13.7%annualised · normal
Volatility is around its normal level for this market — no particular warning signal from the range itself.
How this developed
Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
NewsThe Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
2h ago
Gold pushes to fresh record as central bank buying accelerates
NewsOfficial-sector demand ran above trend for a fourth straight quarter, with emerging-market central banks the dominant buyers. Spot gold cleared its previous high in thin Asian trade before consolidating.
4h ago
US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
NewsCore inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.
1d ago
Gold-silver ratio compresses to two-year low
NewsSilver outperformed gold for a fifth consecutive week, driven by industrial demand from solar manufacturing alongside the same monetary bid supporting the wider complex.
2d ago
Closed above 3,281.63
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
8d ago
Closed above 3,281.63
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
11d ago
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend changeThe 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
14d ago
Closed above 3,228.85
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
17d ago
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend changeThe 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
19d ago
Closed below 3,196.50
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
22d ago
Closed below 3,175.87
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
22d ago
Dropped 2.51% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (1.64%).
25d ago
Closed above 3,339.01
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
29d ago
Closed above 3,281.63
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 4
Jumped 2.00% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (1.49%).
Jul 3
Closed above 3,228.85
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 3
Closed below 3,196.50
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 2
Closed above 3,228.85
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 28
Closed above 3,228.85
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 25
Closed above 3,281.63
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 18
Showing the 20 most recent of 34 events in this window.
Summary
Technical indicators
Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.
3,255.86 / 3,248.75
The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.
43.7
At 44 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.
-0.9618
MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.
1.02× average
Volume is close to its period average — participation is normal and is neither confirming nor contradicting the price move.
50.76 (1.57%)
The market has been moving about 50.76 per bar, or 1.57% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.
Two ways this could go
Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.
Potential bullish scenario
- Trigger
- A daily close above 3,228.85 on above-average volume
- If it fires
- 3,281.63 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
- Invalidation
- A move back below 3,196.50 would void this idea
If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 3,228.85 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 3,281.63. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 50.76 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.
Potential bearish scenario
- Trigger
- Losing 3,196.50 and failing to reclaim it
- If it fires
- 3,175.87, the next level where buyers previously defended
- Invalidation
- Reclaiming 3,228.85 would void this idea
If 3,196.50 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 3,175.87. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.
Trading risks
- This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
- Physical markets are exposed to supply shocks that no chart can anticipate.
- Futures roll and contango can erode returns for anyone holding through expiry.
Key events to watch
- Central bank reserve reports and official-sector buying data
- US real yields and the dollar index, the two dominant macro drivers
- Physical demand data from the largest consuming markets
What actually drives Gold: real yields, US dollar strength, central bank buying, safe-haven demand.
Latest market news
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
30-second summary
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
Gold pushes to fresh record as central bank buying accelerates
30-second summary
Official-sector demand ran above trend for a fourth straight quarter, with emerging-market central banks the dominant buyers. Spot gold cleared its previous high in thin Asian trade before consolidating.
US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
30-second summary
Core inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.
Gold-silver ratio compresses to two-year low
30-second summary
Silver outperformed gold for a fifth consecutive week, driven by industrial demand from solar manufacturing alongside the same monetary bid supporting the wider complex.
This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Generated Aug 4, 08:16 PM · No live source is configured for this market, so prices are simulated and do not represent real quotes.