US Dollar / South African Rand

The dollar against the rand, sensitive to commodity prices and emerging-market risk appetite.

16.4408-0.18%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Neutral

30/100 confidence

US Dollar / South African Rand is range-bound with no decisive edge either way.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50neutral
MACD momentumbearish
RSI (14)neutral
Bollinger positionbearish
Market structurebullish

Key levels

16.8501+2.49%

Price16.4408

16.1896-1.53%

12.5%annualised · elevated

Volatility is above its typical level for this market. Expect larger swings than usual in both directions and size positions accordingly.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Dropped 0.63% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.51%).
2d ago
Dropped 1.00% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.53%).
6d ago
Dropped 0.65% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.53%).
9d ago
Jumped 2.50% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 4.7× its typical daily range (0.53%).
12d ago
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
12d ago
Jumped 0.84% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.45%).
19d ago
Jumped 0.60% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.44%).
22d ago
Jumped 0.89% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.49%).
28d ago
Dropped 1.00% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.51%).
Jul 3
Dropped 0.61% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.52%).
Jun 26
Jumped 0.79% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.53%).
Jun 24
Jumped 1.29% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.56%).
Jun 18
Dropped 1.21% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.55%).
Jun 12
Dropped 0.60% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.50%).
Jun 11
Jumped 0.90% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.49%).
Jun 10
Jumped 1.19% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.50%).
Jun 8
Dropped 0.77% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.53%).
May 29
Dropped 0.89% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.61%).
May 25
Jumped 1.55% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.73%).
May 15
Jumped 0.99% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.78%).
May 8

Showing the 20 most recent of 25 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

16.5255 / 16.4898

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

46.8

neutral

At 47 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

0.04390

bearish

MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.

Not published

neutral

The data source for US Dollar / South African Rand publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.0804 (0.49%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.0804 per bar, or 0.49% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 16.8501 on above-average volume
If it fires: 17.1871 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 16.1896 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 16.8501 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 17.1871. In a range-bound market a clean break is what resolves the indecision, so the volume behind it matters more than the break itself. Given the market is moving roughly 0.0804 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 16.1896 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 15.8658, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 16.8501 would void this idea

If 16.1896 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 15.8658. With no trend in place, a failure at support is as likely to resolve the range as a break higher. With volatility elevated, a break can travel a long way quickly — the first move is often the largest.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Volatility is elevated at roughly 12% annualised, so the usual position size carries more risk than usual right now.
Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives US Dollar / South African Rand: gold and platinum prices, South African Reserve Bank policy, emerging-market risk appetite.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 08:14 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.