US Dollar / Swedish Krona

The dollar against Sweden's currency.

9.5462+0.25%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Bearish

55/100 confidence

US Dollar / Swedish Krona is moderately bearish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bullish
MACD momentumbearish
RSI (14)bearish
Bollinger positionbearish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

9.7751+2.40%

Price9.5462

9.2511-3.09%

10.9%annualised · elevated

Volatility is above its typical level for this market. Expect larger swings than usual in both directions and size positions accordingly.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Dropped 0.44% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.38%).
2d ago
Dropped 1.22% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.2× its typical daily range (0.38%).
6d ago
Dropped 0.70% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.37%).
20d ago
Dropped 0.84% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.46%).
Jul 3
Jumped 0.70% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.55%).
Jun 24
Jumped 1.12% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.55%).
Jun 23
Jumped 2.00% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.6× its typical daily range (0.56%).
Jun 18
Dropped 0.62% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.51%).
Jun 15
Dropped 0.85% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.49%).
Jun 12
Jumped 1.04% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.49%).
Jun 10
Jumped 0.95% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.47%).
Jun 8
Jumped 0.85% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.47%).
Jun 3
Dropped 0.69% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.48%).
May 29
Dropped 1.08% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.47%).
May 25
Jumped 1.26% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.54%).
May 15
Dropped 0.71% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.1× its typical daily range (0.62%).
May 6
Closed below 9.2511
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 6
Jumped 1.15% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.76%).
Apr 28
Closed below 9.2511
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Apr 14
Closed below 9.2511
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Apr 8

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

9.6370 / 9.5768

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

41.0

bearish

At 41 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-0.00420

bearish

MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.

Not published

neutral

The data source for US Dollar / Swedish Krona publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.0357 (0.37%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.0357 per bar, or 0.37% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 9.7751 on above-average volume
If it fires: 9.9706 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 9.2511 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 9.7751 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 9.9706. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 0.0357 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 9.2511 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 9.0661, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 9.7751 would void this idea

If 9.2511 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 9.0661. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility elevated, a break can travel a long way quickly — the first move is often the largest.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Volatility is elevated at roughly 11% annualised, so the usual position size carries more risk than usual right now.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives US Dollar / Swedish Krona: Riksbank policy, eurozone growth spillover, risk sentiment.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 08:13 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.