US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The dollar against the yen — a classic rate-differential pair.
Price · last 3 months
Live · ECBMarket trend
Bearish
US Dollar / Japanese Yen is clearly bearish on this timeframe.
Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.
Signals behind this
- Price vs long-term averagebearish
- EMA 20 vs EMA 50neutral
- MACD momentumbearish
- RSI (14)bearish
- Bollinger positionbearish
- Market structurebullish
Key levels
- 163.910+4.13%
- 156.680-0.46%
7.6%annualised · normal
Volatility is around its normal level for this market — no particular warning signal from the range itself.
How this developed
Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
NewsThe Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
2h ago
Yen weakens past intervention watch level, officials issue warning
NewsThe currency slid to a level that has previously drawn official action, prompting the finance ministry to repeat that it is watching moves with a 'high sense of urgency' and will not rule out steps against excessive volatility.
9h ago
Dropped 2.22% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 4.9× its typical daily range (0.45%).
2d ago
Treasury yields climb after soft long-bond auction
NewsA 30-year auction tailed against the when-issued level with weak indirect participation, pushing yields higher across the curve into the close.
2d ago
Dropped 1.66% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 5.3× its typical daily range (0.31%).
5d ago
Dropped 0.45% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.21%).
6d ago
Jumped 0.25% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.20%).
13d ago
Dropped 0.33% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.25%).
26d ago
Jumped 0.37% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.26%).
28d ago
Jumped 0.74% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.9× its typical daily range (0.25%).
Jul 6
Dropped 0.27% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.21%).
Jul 3
Dropped 0.69% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.3× its typical daily range (0.21%).
Jul 2
Jumped 0.36% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.1× its typical daily range (0.17%).
Jun 30
Jumped 0.34% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.17%).
Jun 22
Jumped 0.19% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.16%).
Jun 19
Jumped 0.39% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.16%).
Jun 18
Dropped 0.21% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.16%).
Jun 12
Jumped 0.21% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.17%).
Jun 10
Dropped 1.01% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.45%).
May 6
Closed below 156.680
Level breakThat price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 6
Showing the 20 most recent of 22 events in this window.
Summary
Technical indicators
Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.
161.518 / 161.194
The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.
27.9
At 28 the market is oversold. Sellers have been in control long enough that bounces become more likely, though oversold markets can stay oversold in a strong downtrend.
-0.49120
MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.
Not published
The data source for US Dollar / Japanese Yen publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.
0.724 (0.46%)
The market has been moving about 0.724 per bar, or 0.46% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.
Two ways this could go
Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.
Potential bullish scenario
- Trigger
- A daily close above 163.910 on above-average volume
- If it fires
- 167.188 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
- Invalidation
- A move back below 156.680 would void this idea
If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 163.910 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 167.188. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 0.724 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.
Potential bearish scenario
- Trigger
- Losing 156.680 and failing to reclaim it
- If it fires
- 153.546, the next level where buyers previously defended
- Invalidation
- Reclaiming 163.910 would void this idea
If 156.680 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 153.546. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.
Trading risks
- This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
- Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
- Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.
Key events to watch
- Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
- Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
- Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members
What actually drives US Dollar / Japanese Yen: US Treasury yields, Bank of Japan policy, carry trade positioning, intervention risk.
Latest market news
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
30-second summary
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
Yen weakens past intervention watch level, officials issue warning
30-second summary
The currency slid to a level that has previously drawn official action, prompting the finance ministry to repeat that it is watching moves with a 'high sense of urgency' and will not rule out steps against excessive volatility.
Treasury yields climb after soft long-bond auction
30-second summary
A 30-year auction tailed against the when-issued level with weak indirect participation, pushing yields higher across the curve into the close.
This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Generated Aug 4, 08:14 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.