US Dollar / Hong Kong Dollar

The dollar against the Hong Kong dollar, pegged within a narrow band by the currency board.

7.8433+0.01%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Bullish

31/100 confidence

US Dollar / Hong Kong Dollar is marginally bullish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50neutral
MACD momentumneutral
RSI (14)bullish
Bollinger positionbullish
Market structurebullish

Key levels

7.8440+0.01%

Price7.8433

7.8282-0.19%

0.4%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Jumped 0.02% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.01%).
6d ago
Jumped 0.02% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.01%).
12d ago
Jumped 0.05% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.8× its typical daily range (0.02%).
26d ago
Dropped 0.04% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.02%).
27d ago
Dropped 0.04% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.1× its typical daily range (0.01%).
28d ago
Jumped 0.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Jul 1
Jumped 0.02% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.01%).
Jun 26
Jumped 0.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.02%).
Jun 18
Jumped 0.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.02%).
Jun 17
Jumped 0.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.02%).
Jun 8
Dropped 0.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.02%).
Jun 4
Dropped 0.03% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.02%).
May 25
Dropped 0.05% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.03%).
May 8
Dropped 0.05% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.03%).
May 7
Jumped 0.04% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.03%).
May 5
Dropped 0.05% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.03%).
Apr 30
Closed below 7.8282
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Apr 16

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

7.8415 / 7.8394

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

59.1

bullish

At 59 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

0.00110

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

Not published

neutral

The data source for US Dollar / Hong Kong Dollar publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.0010 (0.01%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.0010 per bar, or 0.01% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 7.8440 on above-average volume
If it fires: 8.0009 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 7.8282 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 7.8440 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 8.0009. The broader trend already supports this, so it would be continuation rather than a reversal. Given the market is moving roughly 0.0010 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 7.8282 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 7.6716, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 7.8440 would void this idea

If 7.8282 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 7.6716. This runs against the prevailing trend, so it would most likely need a catalyst rather than developing on its own. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Indicators disagree with each other on this timeframe, which historically means choppy conditions and a higher rate of false signals.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives US Dollar / Hong Kong Dollar: Hong Kong currency board interventions, US rate policy, capital flows.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 08:15 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.