US Dollar / Chinese Yuan

The dollar against China's currency, managed within a daily reference band.

6.7535+0.01%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Bearish

70/100 confidence

US Dollar / Chinese Yuan is moderately bearish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averageneutral
EMA 20 vs EMA 50neutral
MACD momentumbearish
RSI (14)bearish
Bollinger positionbearish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

6.8109+0.85%

Price6.7535

6.7513-0.03%

2.5%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Dropped 0.17% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.10%).
6d ago
Dropped 0.16% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.12%).
16d ago
Jumped 0.16% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.11%).
19d ago
Dropped 0.32% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.5× its typical daily range (0.12%).
26d ago
Jumped 0.21% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.12%).
Jul 6
Dropped 0.19% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.13%).
Jun 25
Jumped 0.37% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.0× its typical daily range (0.12%).
Jun 24
Jumped 0.16% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.10%).
Jun 23
Jumped 0.18% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.11%).
Jun 18
Dropped 0.22% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.12%).
Jun 12
Jumped 0.14% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.11%).
Jun 10
Dropped 0.15% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.11%).
Jun 9
Jumped 0.24% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.11%).
Jun 8
Dropped 0.12% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.10%).
Jun 5
Dropped 0.19% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.11%).
May 29
Dropped 0.16% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.12%).
May 25
Jumped 0.37% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.8× its typical daily range (0.13%).
May 15
Dropped 0.28% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.14%).
May 6
Jumped 0.23% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.16%).
Apr 28
Dropped 0.19% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.16%).
Apr 27

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

6.7678 / 6.7816

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

38.3

bearish

At 38 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-0.00771

bearish

MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.

Not published

neutral

The data source for US Dollar / Chinese Yuan publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.0058 (0.09%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.0058 per bar, or 0.09% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 6.8109 on above-average volume
If it fires: 6.9471 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 6.7513 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 6.8109 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 6.9471. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 0.0058 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 6.7513 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 6.6163, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 6.8109 would void this idea

If 6.7513 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 6.6163. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives US Dollar / Chinese Yuan: PBoC daily fixing, China trade data, capital flow controls.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 08:12 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.