NEAR Protocol

NEAR Protocol's native token, priced against the US dollar.

1.740-0.08%

Price · last 3 months

Live · CoinGecko

Market trend

Bearish

88/100 confidence

NEAR Protocol is clearly bearish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averagebearish
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
MACD momentumneutral
RSI (14)bearish
Bollinger positionbearish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

1.767+1.55%
1.852+6.41%
2.090+20.09%

Price1.740

1.685-3.14%
1.577-9.36%
1.513-13.06%

89.6%annualised · high

Realised volatility is running well above what is normal for NEAR Protocol. Ranges are wide, stops need more room, and position sizes should be smaller than usual to keep risk constant.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Closed below 1.685
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
8d ago
Dropped 6.88% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (5.04%).
9d ago
Closed above 1.852
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jul 2
Closed above 1.852
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 29
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Jun 28
Closed above 1.852
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 27
Closed above 2.090
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 13
Closed above 2.090
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 8
Dropped 21.50% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.5× its typical daily range (8.55%).
Jun 4
Jumped 14.83% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (8.21%).
Jun 1
Jumped 14.83% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (6.79%).
May 25
Jumped 15.95% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (6.85%).
May 23
Closed above 2.090
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 23
Jumped 7.72% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (6.40%).
May 22
Jumped 14.01% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (6.11%).
May 21
Closed above 1.767
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 21
Closed above 1.852
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 21
Closed below 1.513
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 16
Closed below 1.577
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 15
Closed below 1.577
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 13

Showing the 20 most recent of 22 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

1.778 / 1.871

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

44.1

bearish

At 44 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.

-0.06714

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

0.34× average

neutral

Activity is 66% below average. Thin participation makes the current move easier to reverse and less reliable as a signal.

0.077 (4.41%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.077 per bar, or 4.41% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 1.767 on above-average volume
If it fires: 1.852 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 1.685 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 1.767 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 1.852. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 0.077 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 1.685 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 1.577, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 1.767 would void this idea

If 1.685 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 1.577. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility elevated, a break can travel a long way quickly — the first move is often the largest.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Volatility is high at roughly 90% annualised, so the usual position size carries more risk than usual right now.
Crypto trades 24/7, so a position can move substantially while you are asleep with no session close to protect you.
Liquidity thins dramatically during weekends and holidays, which exaggerates both directions.
Regulatory headlines remain the single largest source of unhedgeable overnight risk.

Key events to watch

Spot ETF flow data, published daily
Exchange reserve balances and large on-chain transfers
Regulatory announcements and enforcement actions in major jurisdictions

What actually drives NEAR Protocol: developer activity, AI-agent narrative flows, layer-1 competition.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 08:14 PM · Live market data from CoinGecko.