Euro / US Dollar
The world's most traded currency pair.
Price · last 3 months
Live · ECBMarket trend
Bullish
Euro / US Dollar is moderately bullish on this timeframe.
Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.
Signals behind this
- Price vs long-term averageneutral
- EMA 20 vs EMA 50bearish
- MACD momentumbullish
- RSI (14)bullish
- Bollinger positionbullish
- Market structurebullish
Key levels
- 1.17380+1.94%
- 1.13400-1.52%
5.8%annualised · low
Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.
How this developed
Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
NewsThe Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
2h ago
Dollar slips as eurozone PMIs beat expectations
NewsComposite PMI for the bloc came in above consensus, with the services component driving the beat and manufacturing stabilising just under the expansion line. The euro rallied through the session high on the release.
6h ago
US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
NewsCore inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.
1d ago
Jumped 0.44% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.9× its typical daily range (0.23%).
2d ago
Eurozone inflation undershoots as energy base effects fade
NewsFlash HICP came in below forecast on both the headline and core measures, with services inflation decelerating for the first time in four months.
2d ago
Jumped 0.84% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.7× its typical daily range (0.23%).
6d ago
Dropped 0.28% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.23%).
19d ago
Jumped 0.53% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.23%).
20d ago
Jumped 0.43% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.25%).
Jul 3
Jumped 0.52% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.8× its typical daily range (0.29%).
Jun 26
Dropped 0.46% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.29%).
Jun 24
Dropped 0.56% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.27%).
Jun 23
Dropped 1.12% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 4.0× its typical daily range (0.28%).
Jun 18
Jumped 0.35% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.24%).
Jun 15
Dropped 0.29% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.24%).
Jun 10
Jumped 0.29% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.24%).
Jun 9
Dropped 0.86% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 3.7× its typical daily range (0.23%).
Jun 8
Dropped 0.30% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.20%).
Jun 3
Jumped 0.41% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.7× its typical daily range (0.24%).
May 25
Dropped 0.63% in one bar
Price moveA genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.3× its typical daily range (0.28%).
May 15
Showing the 20 most recent of 25 events in this window.
Summary
Technical indicators
Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.
1.14436 / 1.14836
The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.
60.0
At 60 momentum is in the normal band — neither stretched nor exhausted, so RSI is not arguing for a reversal in either direction.
0.00044
MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.
Not published
The data source for Euro / US Dollar publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.
0.00261 (0.23%)
The market has been moving about 0.00261 per bar, or 0.23% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.
Two ways this could go
Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.
Potential bullish scenario
- Trigger
- A daily close above 1.17380 on above-average volume
- If it fires
- 1.19728 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
- Invalidation
- A move back below 1.13400 would void this idea
If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 1.17380 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 1.19728. The broader trend already supports this, so it would be continuation rather than a reversal. Given the market is moving roughly 0.00261 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.
Potential bearish scenario
- Trigger
- Losing 1.13400 and failing to reclaim it
- If it fires
- 1.11132, the next level where buyers previously defended
- Invalidation
- Reclaiming 1.17380 would void this idea
If 1.13400 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 1.11132. This runs against the prevailing trend, so it would most likely need a catalyst rather than developing on its own. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.
Trading risks
- This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
- Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
- Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.
Key events to watch
- Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
- Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
- Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members
What actually drives Euro / US Dollar: ECB vs Fed rate differentials, eurozone growth data, energy prices.
Latest market news
Fed holds rates steady but trims 2026 cut projections to two
30-second summary
The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and the updated dot plot now shows two cuts this year instead of three. The statement kept the language on inflation being 'somewhat elevated' and the Chair pushed back on questions about an earlier start to easing.
Dollar slips as eurozone PMIs beat expectations
30-second summary
Composite PMI for the bloc came in above consensus, with the services component driving the beat and manufacturing stabilising just under the expansion line. The euro rallied through the session high on the release.
US core CPI cools to slowest annual pace in three years
30-second summary
Core inflation excluding food and energy rose less than forecast on the month, with shelter finally decelerating and core services ex-housing flat. Headline was in line.
Eurozone inflation undershoots as energy base effects fade
30-second summary
Flash HICP came in below forecast on both the headline and core measures, with services inflation decelerating for the first time in four months.
This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.
Generated Aug 4, 08:15 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.