Polkadot

Polkadot's native token, used to secure and coordinate its parachain network, priced against the US dollar.

119.3711+1.08%

Price · last 3 months

Simulated

Market trend

Bullish

88/100 confidence

Polkadot is clearly bullish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averagebullish
EMA 20 vs EMA 50bullish
MACD momentumbullish
RSI (14)bullish
Bollinger positionbullish
Market structurebullish

Key levels

120.0586+0.58%

Price119.3711

112.2649-5.95%
111.9324-6.23%
109.1028-8.60%

17.6%annualised · low

Volatility is compressed relative to normal. Quiet markets tend to precede expansion, so this is a setup for a breakout rather than a reason to expect continued calm.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
4d ago
Jumped 2.66% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (1.87%).
11d ago
Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
20d ago
Closed below 109.1028
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
21d ago
Dropped 2.51% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (1.88%).
23d ago
Closed below 112.2649
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
23d ago
Closed below 111.9324
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
23d ago
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
Jul 5
Closed below 109.1028
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 26
Closed below 109.1028
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
Jun 7
Closed below 109.1028
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 29
Closed below 112.2649
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 27
Closed below 111.9324
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 27
Closed below 112.2649
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 23
Closed below 112.2649
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 21
Closed below 111.9324
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 15
Closed below 112.2649
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 8
Closed below 111.9324
Level break
That price is one of today's key levels — this is when price last closed on the other side of it.
May 8

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

112.6134 / 111.4636

bullish

The 20-period average sits above the 50-period average, which is the classic shape of an uptrend. Price above both means buyers have controlled the recent range.

76.7

bearish

At 77 the market is technically overbought. That is a sign of strength, not an automatic sell — but it does mean the easy part of the move is behind us and pullbacks get sharper.

1.73781

bullish

MACD is above its signal line, so short-term momentum is running ahead of the medium-term trend. Momentum is currently working for buyers.

0.91× average

neutral

Volume is close to its period average — participation is normal and is neither confirming nor contradicting the price move.

2.0975 (1.76%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 2.0975 per bar, or 1.76% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 120.0586 on above-average volume
If it fires: 122.4598 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 112.2649 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 120.0586 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 122.4598. The broader trend already supports this, so it would be continuation rather than a reversal. Given the market is moving roughly 2.0975 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 112.2649 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 111.9324, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 120.0586 would void this idea

If 112.2649 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 111.9324. This runs against the prevailing trend, so it would most likely need a catalyst rather than developing on its own. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Crypto trades 24/7, so a position can move substantially while you are asleep with no session close to protect you.
Liquidity thins dramatically during weekends and holidays, which exaggerates both directions.
Regulatory headlines remain the single largest source of unhedgeable overnight risk.

Key events to watch

Spot ETF flow data, published daily
Exchange reserve balances and large on-chain transfers
Regulatory announcements and enforcement actions in major jurisdictions

What actually drives Polkadot: parachain auction activity, interoperability narrative, developer activity.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 08:13 PM · No live source is configured for this market, so prices are simulated and do not represent real quotes.