Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen

The Canadian dollar against the yen, tying oil prices to carry-trade flows.

111.950+0.23%

Price · last 3 months

Live · ECB

Market trend

Bearish

88/100 confidence

Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen is clearly bearish on this timeframe.

Confidence measures how much the indicators agree with each other. It is not a probability that a trade will be profitable.

Signals behind this

Price vs long-term averagebearish
EMA 20 vs EMA 50neutral
MACD momentumbearish
RSI (14)bearish
Bollinger positionbearish
Market structurebearish

Key levels

116.300+3.89%

Price111.950

111.690-0.23%

7.4%annualised · normal

Volatility is around its normal level for this market — no particular warning signal from the range itself.

How this developed

Major moves, trend changes, level breaks and news for this window, newest first.

Medium-term trend turned bearish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed below the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
20h ago
Dropped 2.13% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 4.9× its typical daily range (0.43%).
2d ago
Dropped 1.63% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 5.5× its typical daily range (0.30%).
5d ago
Jumped 0.34% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.22%).
13d ago
Medium-term trend turned bullish
Trend change
The 20-period average crossed above the 50-period average — the same signal behind this page's trend verdict.
15d ago
Jumped 0.37% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.26%).
21d ago
Jumped 0.30% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.26%).
23d ago
Jumped 0.60% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.2× its typical daily range (0.27%).
28d ago
Jumped 0.59% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.4× its typical daily range (0.25%).
Jul 6
Dropped 0.62% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.8× its typical daily range (0.22%).
Jul 2
Jumped 0.25% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.3× its typical daily range (0.19%).
Jul 1
Jumped 0.28% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.21%).
Jun 26
Dropped 0.33% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.6× its typical daily range (0.21%).
Jun 23
Jumped 0.27% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.4× its typical daily range (0.20%).
Jun 22
Dropped 0.42% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.21%).
Jun 18
Dropped 0.28% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.2× its typical daily range (0.22%).
Jun 12
Dropped 0.33% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.22%).
Jun 11
Dropped 0.33% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.21%).
Jun 8
Dropped 0.32% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 1.5× its typical daily range (0.21%).
Jun 4
Dropped 0.92% in one bar
Price move
A genuinely large move for this market, not just a large-looking percentage — it moved 2.0× its typical daily range (0.47%).
May 6

Showing the 20 most recent of 25 events in this window.

Summary

Writing

Technical indicators

Computed from 90 bars over the last 3 months.

114.707 / 114.847

bearish

The 20-period average has crossed below the 50-period average — sellers have had the upper hand and rallies have been sold into.

27.3

bullish

At 27 the market is oversold. Sellers have been in control long enough that bounces become more likely, though oversold markets can stay oversold in a strong downtrend.

-0.28382

bearish

MACD sits below its signal line — short-term momentum has rolled over relative to the medium-term trend, which typically precedes or confirms a pullback.

Not published

neutral

The data source for Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen publishes prices but not traded volume, so there is no participation figure to read. That is a gap in the data, not a quiet market — treat any conclusion that would depend on volume as unsupported here.

0.475 (0.42%)

neutral

The market has been moving about 0.475 per bar, or 0.42% of price. This is the number position sizing and stop placement should be built around — a stop tighter than this will be hit by ordinary noise.

Two ways this could go

Both paths are shown with equal weight. Neither is a prediction.

Potential bullish scenario

Trigger: A daily close above 116.300 on above-average volume
If it fires: 118.626 as the next area where sellers have previously stepped in
Invalidation: A move back below 111.690 would void this idea

If buyers can absorb the supply sitting at 116.300 and hold above it into a close, the path of least resistance opens toward 118.626. This would be counter-trend, so it needs stronger confirmation than usual — a single spike through the level is not enough. Given the market is moving roughly 0.475 per bar, allow at least that much room before treating a wick through the level as a real breakout.

Potential bearish scenario

Trigger: Losing 111.690 and failing to reclaim it
If it fires: 109.456, the next level where buyers previously defended
Invalidation: Reclaiming 116.300 would void this idea

If 111.690 gives way and the market cannot recover it quickly, the next obvious area of interest is 109.456. This aligns with the prevailing trend, which makes it the higher-probability of the two paths here. With volatility contained, expect the move to develop over several bars rather than in one impulse.

Trading risks

This analysis reads price history. It cannot anticipate news, and markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates.
Central bank speakers can reprice the whole curve in seconds, and FX gaps over weekends.
Leverage is typically highest in FX, so ordinary moves produce outsized account impact.

Key events to watch

Central bank rate decisions and the accompanying statement language
Monthly inflation (CPI) and employment releases for both currencies in the pair
Scheduled speeches from voting policy committee members

What actually drives Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen: oil prices, carry trade positioning, risk sentiment.

This analysis is educational and should not be considered financial advice. It is generated from historical price data and can be wrong. Markets reprice on news faster than any indicator updates. Never risk money you cannot afford to lose.

Generated Aug 4, 08:11 PM · European Central Bank reference rates, published once per business day.